Two things are noticeable in Gorton and Denton: palpable frustration and the need to vote wisely and intensively to staunch Reform

 I’m still unable to predict the result after listening to locals, but I can tell that a big, combined effort would be needed. The left may shatter and lose if they do not form a united front.

Staying for a short period of time in Gorton and Denton can make you aware that next week’s by-election is really important. If Labour doesn’t lose in what’s called an over-50% solid red-voting area since the Second World War, that would soothe nerves on its febrile back and front benches. If Labour loses, Keir Starmer has to face heavy blame for fixing the party’s ruling NEC to stop Andy Burnham’s selection, corroborating that he, without a Westminster seat, could abstain from challenging for the leadership.

Only a few are dubious about the popular Greater Manchester mayor winning next week in Gorton and Denton on his home patch. So, when it comes to blocking him, it is widely seen as grubby Westminster politicking that has faltered instead of strengthened Starmer’s control over the leadership. That jiggery-pokery seemed like a turning point for a number of erstwhile supporters. It seemed like Starmer was willing to risk Reform UK scoring another win; Labour has to pin down “stop Farage” as its overwhelming priority.

Labour, Reform, and Green can make a good case for why they deserve to win, as the field is a three-way split between them. A strong anti-Reform majority plainly exists in an area that has been Labour for more than 80 years, but how can anyone know about the best anti-Reform vote to cast?

Greens and Labour accuse each other of dirty tactics, of eradicating each other’s posters from front gardens, and worse, of fighting and beating each other fiercely here. A mass of canvassers has pitched. A journalist can show up to take their pick of doorstep vox pops and shape a conclusion to befit any proposition. It’s a truth that I can’t envisage the result wisely after spending time here; my crystal ball is not bright. Professional pollsters agree on the same thing: Patrick English of YouGov says the Labour and the Greens victory depends on their efforts to successfully unite the “beat Reform” vote. The venerable pollster Petter Kellner says that Reform can be hard to beat if they get 40% of votes. But if they fall short of 40% of votes, they can likely be defeated if voters get a clear signal as to who is a good choice to overtake them. The thing that could be vital is good polling, he says. But nothing is in sight there. Without it, if anti-Reform voters cast their votes dividedly, then first past the post would confirm a Reform victory, he says.

Concentration was drawn sharply this weekend when the white supremacists of Britain First announced what’s called a large “march for remigration” in the center of Manchester that was challenged by Stand Up to Racism and others. All on the left will be focusing on resisting the far right, kin to Nigel Farage’s crew, setting aside their smaller differences. Reform’s candidate, the GB News presenter Matt Goodwin, has claimed UK-born people who are from minority ethnic backgrounds should not necessarily be considered British. He has also said that we should dramatically lower migration in the UK from predominantly Islamic nations if we don’t stop it thoroughly. The voters who belong to an ethnic minority are more than 40% here.

I want to quote a former Labour voter from my vox pops on the doorstep who says aloud, “Everything needs to change from bottom to top.” He is not only saying it, but “change” is what’s called a Farage trope. Or a woman who has been voting for Labour a long time was dithering there. “Everything going wrong, is it?” she says. Then that supporter gives a nod to the sound of Labour achievement—breakfast clubs, local bus fares capped at £2, NHS waiting times falling, the move to curtail zero-hour jobs, the living wage rising, and more. Then, looking at Farage’s leaflet, she describes, “We don’t need that smile; he should have to be staunched.” Her favorite is Burnham. But she would likely support Labour.

Burnham is showing up everywhere most days, whether for events or door-knocking and recording TikToks; “the most loyal of foot soldiers,” says his team. You look at him for the eye-roll: he may be subhuman if a schadenfreude wish for a loss here to help Starmer right wasn’t made deep within. But it’s apparent that he’s backing Angeliki Stogia, the great local candidate, and he knows her well as a local councillor. People sometimes denounce Labour for blocking him from running and tell him they wouldn’t vote for it. He begs voters that they should not stop voting Labour given Farage’s rising threat. He reminds people that Farage has just won nearby Runcorn by just six votes at the recent byelection. Casting votes for Labour means keeping Farage out, he says. People listen to him while he talks of national policies, of what deterioration Labour has done to the disability benefits and winter fuel allowance, and of the urgent need of electoral reform, Lords reform, and a new economic direction. They heed his words.

One day could he contest for the leadership? Can he become champion by winning it? I can’t predict it with accuracy. But primed to go, you know that he can stand “in the slips, straining upon the beginning,” as Shakespeare might have it, geared up with thoughts of governing, and like so many others, exasperated by the missteps that many think have obliterated Labour in so short a time.

Gorton and Denton will produce a result next Thursday, disclosing the shape of the battle to come.